It’s the economy

Why did Donald Trump do better than many pollers predicted? Apparently, a great deal of trust in his business competence continues to help him.

Claiming the victory for himself and threatening a lawsuit: Donald Trump

PPresident Donald Trump has fared better than most pollers predicted. Granted business literacy is likely to be an important explanation for this. According to the polling institute Pew Research, the economy is by far the most important issue for voters. The Covid-19 pandemic plays a subordinate role in the ranking of the most important topics.

In almost all polls before Election Day, Trump lagged behind his adversary Joe Biden. There was only one area where he was able to maintain a leading position almost consistently: he was trusted to have greater business skills. Even the biggest slump in the American labor market changed little – after a brief decline in approval in early summer, the values ​​stabilized again.

Two factors seem to have played into Trump’s hands: Before the American economy paid its tribute to the pandemic and failed efforts to contain it, it set record highs in the labor market. In 2019 incomes rose noticeably, and inequality even decreased. Economic growth exceeded that in many industrialized nations.

Keeping a close eye on the Dow Jones

The voters apparently attribute this achievement to Trump, who can at least refer to a major tax reform and to having extensively deregulated the economy. The stock exchange prices also speak for Trump. Wealthy retirees, for example, who carried it to victory in Florida, keep a close eye on the Dow Jones.

The second factor is that voters probably did not blame Trump for the comparatively strong spread of the pandemic and the severe negative economic consequences. Many Americans do not look beyond their borders to make international comparisons. They have the basic trust that the United States always does well in global comparisons anyway.

Apparently, many even credit him for the fact that he is trying to open up shops and companies. Even if the economic recovery has recently weakened, the latest economic data were surprisingly positive.

Trump’s instincts are usually good anyway. His warning that the Great Depression will come with Biden is likely to have caught on among some voters. Biden’s announcement of tax hikes did not seem to have given it the big breakthrough. In any case, the promise to curb inequality with a tax on the wealthy did not have much traction. Many entrepreneurs are fighting for the survival of their businesses and fear a more left-wing economic agenda that will force them to pay higher wages, for example. Trump has promised tax cuts.